Polling Update

 

NATIONAL (Gallup): Romney 51% vs. Obama 45%
ARIZONA (YouGov): Romney 52% vs. Obama 43%
COLORADO (We Ask America): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
FLORIDA (YouGov): Obama 48% vs. Romney 47%
GEORGIA (YouGov): Romney 52% vs. Obama 44%

INDIANA (Rasmussen): Romney 54% vs. Obama 41%
INDIANA (YouGov): Romney 53% vs. Obama 41%
MISSOURI (YouGov): Romney 52% vs. Obama 42%
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Suffolk): Obama 47% vs. Romney 47%
NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov): Romney 49% vs. Obama 48%
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama 50% vs. Romney 46%
TENNESSEE (YouGov): Romney 52% vs. Obama 43%
TEXAS (YouGov): Romney 55% vs. Obama 41%
VIRGINIA (YouGov): Obama 46% vs. Romney 45%
ARIZONA-US SENATE (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 44% vs. Richard Carmona (D) 38%
CONNECTICUT-US SENATE (YouGov): Chris Murphy (D) 42% vs. Linda McMahon (R) 40%
INDIANA-US SENATE (YouGov): Richard Mourdock (R) 45% vs. Joe Donnelly (D) 41%
MINNESOTA-US SENATE (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 58% vs. Kurt Bills (R) 30%
MONTANA-US SENATE (Rasmussen): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48% vs. Denny Rehberg (R) 48%
NEVADA-US SENATE (YouGov): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 42% vs. Shelley Berkley (D) 36%
OHIO-US SENATE (YouGov): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48% vs. Josh Mandel (R) 43%
PENNSYLVANIA-US SENATE (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48% vs. Tom Smith (R) 45%
TENNESSEE-US SENATE (YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 48% vs. Mark Clayton (D) 27%
TEXAS-US SENATE (YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 51% vs. Paul Sadler (D) 36%
VIRGINIA-US SENATE (YouGov): Tim Kaine (D) 42% vs. George Allen (R) 42%
INDIANA-GOVERNOR (YouGov): Mike Pence (R) 49% vs. John Gregg (D) 38%
NORTH CAROLINA-GOVERNOR (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 52% vs. Walter Dalton (D) 38%
NORTH CAROLINA-GOVERNOR (YouGov): Pat McCrory (R) 50% vs. Walter Dalton (D) 34%
WASHINGTON-GOVERNOR (Rasmussen): Jay Inslee (D) 47% vs. Rob McKenna (R) 45%
WASHINGTON-GOVERNOR (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 47% vs. Rob McKenna (R) 44%
PHOTO: Former Sen. George Allen (R-VA) continues to be tied with former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) in the US Senate race. The Allen family includes Forrest (from left), Brook, Susan, George and Tyler.

 

 

The Democrats Who Opposed Lincoln

 

This cartoon is from 2007 but the point is still valid. Clement Vallandigham (D-OH) was a Member of Congress (1858-1862) and the leader of the pro-South “Copperhead Democrats.” He was the 1864 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nominee even though he was living in exile in the South.
Vallandigham said the United States under Abraham Lincoln was “the worst despotism on earth,” and he sought the intervention of a foreign power to help the Confederacy. He urged young men not to enlist in the Union Army and attacked “King Lincoln” for waging a war to liberate blacks.
In Illinois the Democratic majority in the state legislature urged Lincoln to withdraw the Emancipation Proclamation freeing the slaves. Indiana’s Democratic majority in the legislature had the same opinion, and they came close to taking over the state militia so it could withdraw from the Civil War.
They presented a serious challenge to the first GOP president, and Lincoln referred to them as “the fire in the rear.” Vallandigham was convicted of treason but was pardoned by Lincoln. He died at age 50 after accidentally shooting himself.

Romney Continues to Surge in Swing States

NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney 46% vs. Obama 45%
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
COLORADO (Quinnipiac): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
FLORIDA (NBC-Marist): Obama 48% vs. Romney 47%
MONTANA (Montana State University-Billings): Romney 49% vs. Obama 35%

MONTANA (PPP): Romney 52% vs. Obama 41%
NEVADA (SurveyUSA): Obama 47% vs. Romney 46%
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen): Obama 48% vs. Romney 48%
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 51% vs. Obama 48%
OHIO (Gravis): Romney 46% vs. Obama 45%
PENNSYLVANIA (Pulse Opinion): Obama 47% vs. Romney 45%
VIRGINIA (NBC-Marist): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
WISCONSIN (Quinnipiac): Obama 50% vs. Romney 47%
WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama 51% vs. Romney 49%
MICHIGAN (Gravis): Obama 46% vs. Romney 44%
MONTANA-GOVERNOR (Montana State University-Billings): Rick Hill (R) 40% vs. Steve Bullock (D) 38%
NEVADA-US SENATE (PPP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47% vs. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 44%
NEVADA-US SENATE (Suffolk): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 40% vs. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 37%
PENNSYLVANIA-US SENATE (Pulse Opinion): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 44% vs. Tom Smith (R) 41%
PENNSYLVANIA-US SENATE (Susquehanna Research): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46% vs. Tom Smith (R) 44%
VIRGINIA-US SENATE (NBC/Marist): Tim Kaine (D) 47% vs. George Allen (R) 46%
VIRGINIA-US SENATE (McLaughlin): George Allen (R) 49% vs. Tim Kaine (D) 46%
VIRGINIA-US SENATE (WeAskAmerica): George Allen (R) 46% vs. Tim Kaine (D) 41%
WISCONSIN-US SENATE (Quinnipiac): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48% vs. Tommy Thompson (R) 46% (47); Obama 50-47 (51-45)
PHOTO: The Pennsylvania US Senate race has received little attention but GOP candidate Tom Smith clearly has the momentum. In two polls released today he is behind by just 2% and 3%. He is shown with Congressman Tim Murphy, and Smith says “As the owner of several coal mining companies, I was on the receiving end of President Obama and Senator Casey’s costly, job-killing regulations.
“I saw firsthand the damage that an out-of-control government can do to an American economy struggling to create jobs. The President’s EPA has clearly declared a war on coal – an industry crucial to our economy. Dozens of coal plants in Pennsylvania could close under the proposed EPA regulations, destroying jobs and increasing the cost of electricity for families and small businesses.”

 

 

Big Bird Should Not Be on The Federal Payroll

 

 

In 2011, the House of Representatives passed the Ryan Plan to cut the deficit by $6.2 trillion. They voted to eliminate federal funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB), which was allocated $432 million from the government in the previous year. They also passed a bill to cut off all federal funding for National Public Radio. These votes were mostly along party lines. All three measures were later stopped in the Democratic Senate.
Republicans said it was time for the government to get out of the TV and radio business. The final vote came a week after conservative activists secretly recorded an NPR executive making derogatory comments about Tea Party supporters.
The ensuing controversy led to the resignation of NPR CEO Vivian Schiller. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said taxpayers no longer wanted to spend money on the content CPB and NPR provides. “The problem is, we’ve seen programming for NPR and CPB often veer far from what most Americans would like to see as far as the expenditure of their taxpayer dollars. That’s the bottom line.”

What Was Obama’s Biggest Lie?

There is a lot of competition for that title, but a top contender would have to be this comment during the third 2008 debate with John McCain (see below link).
It was moderated by Bob Schieffer of CBS who said next year there would be and “astounding $455 billion deficit,” and Obama’s proposals would add another $200 billion to the deficit. The then Senator responded “What I have done throughout this campaign is to promise a net spendng cut.”
He described himself as a “strong proponent of pay as you go (PAY-GO). Every dollar that I have proposed spending, I have proposed an additional cut. So that it matches. . . We need to eliminate a whole host of programs that don’t work. I want to go through the federal budget line by line.”
Unfortunately, all of this was a complete lie. Obama never considered a net spending cut and of course it was not included in his proposed budgets. PAY-GO was passed by the Democratic Congress in early 2007, but they never once complied with it. The real farce was the news media which portrayed liberal Democrats as deficit hawks in 2006 and 2008.
Some of the other contending statements for biggest lie would be:

• I’ve done more for Israel’s security than any President ever.
• The GOP is responsible for Obama jobs bill not passing.
• Then you’ve got their (GOP) position which is dirtier air, dirtier water and less people with health insurance.
• The rich don’t pay their fair share.
• The health care bill will not increase the deficit by one dime.
• If you like the health care plan you have, you can keep it.
• We have run out of places in the US to drill for oil.
• We will cut deficit in half by end of the first term.
• Health care negotiations will be covered on C-Span.
• The unemployment rate will be 5.3% with the stimulus.
• “I am not somebody who promotes same-sex marriage”.
• Guantanamo Bay will be closed within a year.
• Didn’t know Jeremiah Wright was a radical.
• We will have the most transparent administration in history.
• I have visited all 57 states.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOZpJ4rSITo&feature=player_embedded

43rd Anniversary: What if Chappaquiddick Never Happened?

On this date in 1969, a car driven by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA) plunged off a bridge on Chappaquiddick Island near Martha’s Vineyard. Kennedy’s 28 year old passenger Mary Jo Kopechne died by drowning.
The Senator waited 10 hours before reporting the accident, but was never able to give a convincing explanation of his strange behavior. His license was suspended for six months. At the time of the incident, Kennedy was the nation’s most prominent potential Democratic presidential candidate.
If it had not happened, he may have still passed on a 1972 campaign against President Richard Nixon. He was only 40 that year. 1976 would have been a more realistic time for him, and it was an excellent year for Democrats.
When he did try to deny Jimmy Carter’s 1980 renomination, the Chappaquiddick incident haunted him and helped destroyed his chances. Writing in his book “True Compass,” which was published a week after his death, Kennedy described his actions as “inexcusable” and said that at the time he was afraid, overwhelmed “and made terrible decisions.”
Kennedy said he had to live with the guilt of his actions for four decades but that Miss Kopechne’s family had to endure far worse. “Atonement is a process that never ends,” he wrote.
The news media was relatively easy on Kennedy in 1969, and he was not forced to answer many difficult questions. That would not be allowed today. Kennedy’s popularity obviously declined, but even after Chappaquiddick, he still had a 58% approval rating in 1969, and was easily reelected in 1970

What to Expect With Obama’s 2012 Democratic Convention Bounce

 

 

The Democratic convention in Charlotte will be held during the week of September 3, and the President is expected to receive the traditional bounce in the polls. Conservatives should not panic.
On July 26, 1988, the Gallup Poll for Newsweek was published. It was Gov. Michael Dukakis (D-MA) 55% vs. Vice President George H.W. Bush 38%. This was the first survey after the Democratic convention. Before the convention Dukakis was leading 47% to 41%, and this would be his peak.
Bush would carry 40 states, and was the last Republican to win many “blue states” that favor the Democratic Party. These states were Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois and California.
His victory percentage, 53.4%, has not yet been surpassed in any subsequent presidential election, and he was the last candidate to get a majority of the popular vote until his son’s 2004 election. This was also the last election in which a Republican nominee won a majority of Northern electoral votes.
In 1984, Walter Mondale’s (D-MN) standing rose 12 points after the Democratic convention that year, but the improved performance dissipated within ten days.

Pedro Rios: A GOP Rising Star in California’s Central Valley

 

 

In the rankings posted today, the liberal website Daily Kos predicts Pedro Rios (R) will win an open seat for the California State Assembly. Democrats are especially unpopular in the Central Valley because of stringent regulations which have restricted the water supply. The Daily Kos says it will be very difficult for a Democrat to overcome Rios’ 60 to 40 advantage.
This is a 69% Hispanic district and there are currently no Latino Republicans in the state legislature.
In 2010, the main accusation of Valley Democrats was that Republicans were anti-immigrant. They will have a hard time making that case against this year’s GOP nominee. Rios was born in Mexico and immigrated when he was nine years old. He has lived in Delano for the last 25 years.
Rios understands agriculture because along with his family, he’s picked grapes, pruned almonds, and cultivated tomatoes, squash, bell peppers and green peas. He graduated from California State University at Bakersfield, joined the Army National Guard, and was awarded the Army Achievement Medal.
From personal experience he knew his business idea would be a success, and he was correct. He established Rios Portable Toilets to provide restroom facilities for agricultural workers.
In 2000, he was elected to the Delano City Council (population 53,000), and went on to serve as Vice Mayor and Mayor. Delano is best known as the birthplace of the United Farm Workers, and it is still closely identified with the late labor leader Cesar Chavez. Chavez was a liberal on all fiscal issues but his union strongly advocated restricting immigration.
Rios has gone from farm worker to farm owner. He says “The American dream is still alive, but it is being hampered by the heavy hand of government, taxes and regulation. The once great state of California has been driven to the brink of failure.
“Businesses are leaving in droves and taxes are being raised. Higher taxes are not the answer. We must focus on decreasing the size and scope of government. Spending cuts should be made across the board. I do not support any new taxes, and I do not support Governor Brown’s tax proposal.”
He also has a strong anti-Obama message. The administration has had a major role in restricting water to the Central Valley and Rios says “We need water, not a $100 billion train. Water is the life-blood of our families’ future. It will be my number one job.”

State Representative Debra Young Maggart (R-TN)

Our Republican of the day is State Representative Debra Young Maggart (R-TN), the Chairman of the House Majority Caucus. She previously served as the Republican Whip.
In 2011, for the first time in Tennessee history, conservatives controlled the Governorship and both chambers of the General Assembly. She was immediately elected by her colleagues, and Maggart, 52, wasted no time in implementing an ambitious reform agenda.

As Caucus Chairman, her remarkable record of accomplishment includes:
* The elimination of the death tax;
* The repeal of the gift tax;
* A commitment to a forever ban on a state income tax;
* A voter photo ID requirement that protects elections from fraud;
* A crackdown on violent sex offenders;
* Tort reforms so businesses can operate on a level playing field;
* As well as passage of two balanced budgets.
Dr. Art Laffer, the father of supply-side economics, now lives in Nashville, and describes Maggart as a “proven fighter for pro-growth economic policies. While Washington continually eschews its fiscal responsibilities, Tennessee has become a model for how government should conduct itself. Coupled with Tennessee’s right to work status, her initiatives are making the state one of the nation’s premier locations for new jobs.
“Tennesseans owe a debt of gratitude to Debra Maggart for these victories, and she has helped advanced the cause of economic freedom to lengths unseen in the modern era.”
She was first elected in 2004 and was among the few legislators who endorsed Romney last year. Maggart, a grandmother and Rolling Stones fan, resides in Hendersonville. Her interest in politics dates back to childhood. She grew up in Governor A.H. Roberts’ home. He was responsible for calling the special session in which Tennessee voted to ratify the U.S. Constitution to give women the right to vote.

 

 

Who Will it Be? Remembering When Kerry Picked Edwards as a Running Mate

 

WHO WILL IT BE? Today’s New York Times is claiming the Romney vice presidential choice may be announced this week. Reporter Jeff Zeleny says, “Romney has reached a decision, his friends believe, and he may disclose it as soon as this week.”
Zeleny believes former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) is the frontrunner with Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) as the backup.
Jim Geraghty of National Review says the best way to get a scoop on Romney’s decision is to watch his campaign plane.
Geraghty remind us that John Kerry’s 2004 selection of then Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) was broken by the U.S. Aviation Network website. Their members made the announcement after witnessing the repainting of the Kerry aircraft.