Polling Update


NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 51% vs. Obama 45%
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 50% vs. Obama 46%
NATIONAL (American Research Group): Romney 49% vs. Obama 47%
NATIONAL (GWU/Politico): Romney 49% vs. Obama 47%
NATIONAL (Reuters Tracking): Obama 46% vs. Romney 46%
NATIONAL (Monmouth University): Romney 48% vs. Obama 45%
NATIONAL (NBC News/Wall Street Journal): Obama 47% vs. Romney 47%
NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 48% vs. Romney 48%
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post Tracking): Obama 49% vs. Romney 48%
NATIONAL (UPI): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
NATIONAL (CBS News): Obama 48% vs. Romney 46%
COLORADO (Rasmussen): Romney 50% vs. Obama 46%
FLORIDA (Angus Reid): Romney 51% vs. Obama 46%
FLORIDA (PPP): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Obama 47% vs. Romney 46%
IOWA (PPP): Obama 49% vs. Romney 48%
IOWA (Rasmussen): Obama 48% vs. Romney 48%
MISSOURI (PPP): Romney 52% vs. Obama 46%
NORTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): Romney 54% vs. Obama 40%
NORTH DAKOTA (Fargo Forum): Romney 57% vs. Obama 32%
OHIO (Angus Reid): Obama 48% vs. Romney 48%
OHIO (Gravis): Obama 47% vs. Romney 47%
OHIO (PPP): Obama 49% vs. Romney 48%
OHIO (Pulse Opinion Research): Romney 47% vs. Obama 46%
OHIO (Suffolk University): Obama 47% vs. Romney 47%
PENNSYLVANIA (Pulse Opinion Research): Obama 48% vs. Romney 44%
PENNSYLVANIA (Gravis): Obama 48% vs. Romney 45%
VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama 49% vs. Romney 47%
VIRGINIA (Pulse Opinion Research): Obama 47% vs. Romney 46%
VIRGINIA (Wenzel Strategies): Romney 49% vs. Obama 47%
WISCONSIN (Grove Insight): Obama 47% vs. Romney 44%
WISCONSIN (Pulse Opinion Research): Obama 50% vs. Romney 47%

Polling Update


NATIONAL (Gallup): Romney 51% vs. Obama 45%
ARIZONA (YouGov): Romney 52% vs. Obama 43%
COLORADO (We Ask America): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
FLORIDA (YouGov): Obama 48% vs. Romney 47%
GEORGIA (YouGov): Romney 52% vs. Obama 44%

INDIANA (Rasmussen): Romney 54% vs. Obama 41%
INDIANA (YouGov): Romney 53% vs. Obama 41%
MISSOURI (YouGov): Romney 52% vs. Obama 42%
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Suffolk): Obama 47% vs. Romney 47%
NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov): Romney 49% vs. Obama 48%
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama 50% vs. Romney 46%
TENNESSEE (YouGov): Romney 52% vs. Obama 43%
TEXAS (YouGov): Romney 55% vs. Obama 41%
VIRGINIA (YouGov): Obama 46% vs. Romney 45%
ARIZONA-US SENATE (YouGov): Jeff Flake (R) 44% vs. Richard Carmona (D) 38%
CONNECTICUT-US SENATE (YouGov): Chris Murphy (D) 42% vs. Linda McMahon (R) 40%
INDIANA-US SENATE (YouGov): Richard Mourdock (R) 45% vs. Joe Donnelly (D) 41%
MINNESOTA-US SENATE (SurveyUSA): Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) 58% vs. Kurt Bills (R) 30%
MONTANA-US SENATE (Rasmussen): Sen. Jon Tester (D) 48% vs. Denny Rehberg (R) 48%
NEVADA-US SENATE (YouGov): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 42% vs. Shelley Berkley (D) 36%
OHIO-US SENATE (YouGov): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 48% vs. Josh Mandel (R) 43%
PENNSYLVANIA-US SENATE (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 48% vs. Tom Smith (R) 45%
TENNESSEE-US SENATE (YouGov): Sen. Bob Corker (R) 48% vs. Mark Clayton (D) 27%
TEXAS-US SENATE (YouGov): Ted Cruz (R) 51% vs. Paul Sadler (D) 36%
VIRGINIA-US SENATE (YouGov): Tim Kaine (D) 42% vs. George Allen (R) 42%
INDIANA-GOVERNOR (YouGov): Mike Pence (R) 49% vs. John Gregg (D) 38%
NORTH CAROLINA-GOVERNOR (Rasmussen): Pat McCrory (R) 52% vs. Walter Dalton (D) 38%
NORTH CAROLINA-GOVERNOR (YouGov): Pat McCrory (R) 50% vs. Walter Dalton (D) 34%
WASHINGTON-GOVERNOR (Rasmussen): Jay Inslee (D) 47% vs. Rob McKenna (R) 45%
WASHINGTON-GOVERNOR (SurveyUSA): Jay Inslee (D) 47% vs. Rob McKenna (R) 44%
PHOTO: Former Sen. George Allen (R-VA) continues to be tied with former Gov. Tim Kaine (D) in the US Senate race. The Allen family includes Forrest (from left), Brook, Susan, George and Tyler.



Romney Continues to Surge in Swing States

NATIONAL (Fox News): Romney 46% vs. Obama 45%
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
COLORADO (Quinnipiac): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
FLORIDA (NBC-Marist): Obama 48% vs. Romney 47%
MONTANA (Montana State University-Billings): Romney 49% vs. Obama 35%

MONTANA (PPP): Romney 52% vs. Obama 41%
NEVADA (SurveyUSA): Obama 47% vs. Romney 46%
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen): Obama 48% vs. Romney 48%
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Romney 51% vs. Obama 48%
OHIO (Gravis): Romney 46% vs. Obama 45%
PENNSYLVANIA (Pulse Opinion): Obama 47% vs. Romney 45%
VIRGINIA (NBC-Marist): Romney 48% vs. Obama 47%
WISCONSIN (Quinnipiac): Obama 50% vs. Romney 47%
WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama 51% vs. Romney 49%
MICHIGAN (Gravis): Obama 46% vs. Romney 44%
MONTANA-GOVERNOR (Montana State University-Billings): Rick Hill (R) 40% vs. Steve Bullock (D) 38%
NEVADA-US SENATE (PPP): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 47% vs. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 44%
NEVADA-US SENATE (Suffolk): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 40% vs. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) 37%
PENNSYLVANIA-US SENATE (Pulse Opinion): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 44% vs. Tom Smith (R) 41%
PENNSYLVANIA-US SENATE (Susquehanna Research): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 46% vs. Tom Smith (R) 44%
VIRGINIA-US SENATE (NBC/Marist): Tim Kaine (D) 47% vs. George Allen (R) 46%
VIRGINIA-US SENATE (McLaughlin): George Allen (R) 49% vs. Tim Kaine (D) 46%
VIRGINIA-US SENATE (WeAskAmerica): George Allen (R) 46% vs. Tim Kaine (D) 41%
WISCONSIN-US SENATE (Quinnipiac): Tammy Baldwin (D) 48% vs. Tommy Thompson (R) 46% (47); Obama 50-47 (51-45)
PHOTO: The Pennsylvania US Senate race has received little attention but GOP candidate Tom Smith clearly has the momentum. In two polls released today he is behind by just 2% and 3%. He is shown with Congressman Tim Murphy, and Smith says “As the owner of several coal mining companies, I was on the receiving end of President Obama and Senator Casey’s costly, job-killing regulations.
“I saw firsthand the damage that an out-of-control government can do to an American economy struggling to create jobs. The President’s EPA has clearly declared a war on coal – an industry crucial to our economy. Dozens of coal plants in Pennsylvania could close under the proposed EPA regulations, destroying jobs and increasing the cost of electricity for families and small businesses.”



Political Update: Now Bush is Defeating Obama!


Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL) is shown with the President. Davis was defeated in the Democratic gubernatorial primary and then had some surprising praise for the GOP nominee, Dr. Robert Bentley: “Robert Bentley is one of the most decent, honorable people I know in politics. I have nothing but admiration for him. I believe he will be a very strong candidate.”

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL: Many public opinion polls have noted the sharp drop in President Obama’s approval rating which was over 80% in January of 2009. The surprise is that George W. Bush’s approval rating has increased from 35% when he left office to 45% today. In a new Quinnipiac Poll, Obama’s approval rating is 44%. Based on the Quinnipiac numbers, for the first time Bush is ahead of Obama.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: The Massachusetts House of Representatives on Tuesday voted to abolish the electoral college, and the State Senate could take the same action as early as today. The proposal passed the State Senate in 2008, and Governor Deval Patrick (D) has already said he would sign the measure.
Five states have now voted to do away with the electoral college, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey and Washington. In addition to the Bay State, the proposal is pending before legislatures in Rhode Island, California, Colorado and Vermont.
BIPARTISANSHIP: Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) on CNN’s State of the Union:

There are some things the President is trying to do that we support. We support his efforts in Afghanistan, I think he is on the right track there. I think he continued the policy successfully in Iraq. He says he is for trade deals, where are they? We would like to help him pass them. He says he is for nuclear power. What is he prepared to do on that? We are for that. He says he is for clean coal technology, we haven’t seen any evidence of any action on that, but we are for that.

REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP At a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, House Republican Leader John Boehner (OH) acknowledged he could face a leadership challenge after the November election. Boehner hopes to be the next Speaker of the House, but he may be on a collision course with GOP Whip Eric Cantor (VA).
Boehner does not believe House Conference Chairman Mike Pence (IN) will challenge him, and said: “I’ve made it clear that we’re going to run the House differently than it’s being run today and differently than it was run by Republicans in the past.”
QUOTE OF THE DAY: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) was defending the Obama administration’s auto bailouts last night and said “If it were up to the Republicans, Ford Motor Company would probably be gone.” Ford is the only U.S. automaker that did not take any bailout money and they just had their best quarterly performance in six years.
ALABAMA: State Rep. Robert Bentley was the surprise victor in the GOP gubernatorial primary last week. His opponent, State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D), also won a surprise victory.
Bentley was able to win the GOP nomination because he benefited from over $2 million in negative ads which were paid for by the Alabama Education Association (AEA). The ads portrayed Bentley’s opponent, former State Sen. Bradley Byrne, as a liberal.
Byrne is a solid conservative and a vigorous foe of the teacher’s lobby. The AEA was able to drive up Byrne’s negative ratings to 33%, and he has a 36% approval rating.
Dr. Bentley has a 68% positive rating and a negative rating of only 6%. Bentley defeated Byrne by a 56% to 44% margin. Another surprise was that Congressman Artur Davis (D) who was defeated in the gubernatorial primary, had high praise for the GOP nominee:

Robert Bentley is one of the most decent, honorable people I know in politics. I have nothing but admiration for him. I believe he will be a very strong candidate. I wish Ron Sparks well. But I think one common concern that people have — and I share — is that he could open the door that allows gambling interests to control Alabama.

IOWA: Rep. David Loebsack (D) has a narrow 46% to 41% lead in a new Susquehanna Survey. He is being opposed by ophthalmologist Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) who says:

Loebsack had the chance to represent us, but in vote after vote, he instead chose to stand with the liberal far left interests that are bankrupting this country with massive new government spending… A $1 trillion government stimulus plan that Loebsack didn’t even read, and which hasn’t created any private sector jobs… A $2 trillion government run health care bill that will raise costs on employers, force job layoffs and cuts to benefits, and $455 billion in cuts to Medicare… A cap-and-tax bill, which will send Iowa jobs overseas and, according to President Obama, will cause our energy rates to skyrocket.

MICHIGAN: A Detroit News poll has Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick trailing State Sen. Hansen Clarke by 8% in the Democratic primary. An EPIC-MRA poll has the 14 year incumbent losing by 11%. Her son is former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick who is now in jail for corruption. Rep. Kilpatrick survived in 2008 when two challengers split the vote.
NEBRASKA: Sen. Ben Nelson’s term does not expire until 2012 but he continues to trail Gov. Dave Heineman (R) by 30 points. In a new Magellan survey, the Governor has a 58% to 28% lead.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: The state’s largest newspaper, the Union- Leader was quick to criticize Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Attorney General Kelly Ayotte in the Senate race:

Palin isn’t making these endorsements because, as she claims, she has spent time in New Hampshire and thus knows that the people here are a lot like Alaskans. She spent a few hours here on one day during the 2008 Presidential election. That’s still more time than she spent getting to know Ayotte, but it takes quite a bit longer to know New Hampshire.

Ayotte responded by saying she hopes Palin will campaign with her.
NEVADA: Dr. Stuart Rothenberg has a analysis of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D) campaign in the current issue of Congressional Quarterly. The Senator has high negative ratings but has picked up considerable support in recent weeks, and now has the lead in two polls. Rothenberg says:

Even Republican political operatives acknowledge privately that former Nevada state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle has been an even worse candidate than they had thought. Angle’s prospects have now slipped from being a clear favorite to only 50-50.
Reid remains a political basket case, but he certainly has a fighting chance in a contest of two unappealing nominees. And Angle has the benefit of a Republican wind at her back that could still turn into a gale-force wind. Republicans might want to ship Angle out of the country for a few months to improve her prospects.

Gubernatorial candidate Brian Sandoval (R) has a 52% to 38% lead over Rory Reid, the Senator’s son.
OHIO: In the U.S. Senate race, former Rep. Rob Portman (R) has a 6% lead over Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D). Portman also has a huge cash advantage, $9 million to $1.4 million.
VIRGINIA: Freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D) is losing to State Sen. Bob Hurt (R) by a 35% to 58% margin in a SurveyUSA poll. Perriello, 35, is a Yale lawyer who narrowly won this district in a surprise upset. He was losing by 32% three months before the 2008 election. Perriello has a large cash advantage, $1.7 million to $216,000.
WASHINGTON: Former State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D) are running neck and neck. In a setback to Rossi, Sarah Palin posted a fundraising message on her website yesterday on behalf of Rossi’s primary opponent, Clint Didier, a former NFL player. Didier wants the U.S.to pull out of the UN, Iraq and Afghanistan. He says the troops should instead be deployed to the U.S.-Mexico border to halt “an invasion of illegal immigrants”. He has also been endorsed by Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX).
The New York Times noted Palin’s endorsement and said “She is leaving a major footprint on the 2010 midterm elections is not disputed, but less clear is whether the endorsements are rooted in an effort to amplify her image or to create a political strategy for the future.”
WEST VIRGINIA: In a major disappointment for Republicans, Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito will not run for the U.S. Senate this November. She would have been allowed to seek re-election to her House seat and to run for the Senate at the same time, but she is not going to do it.
Gov. Joe Manchin (D) was the solid front runner before her announcement and this further cements his position. State Republican Chairman Doug McKinney said last night that he has not heard from any candidate who is seriously considering the race.
Former GOP party chairman John Raese, who has run two losing campaigns for the Senate, has scheduled a press conference for today. West Virginia does not have a Lt. Governor. If Manchin is elected to the Senate in November, the new Governor will be State Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin

Political Update – A Report from the Battleground


Huma Abedin, 34, and Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY), 45, will be married tomorrow in a ceremony performed by former President Bill Clinton.

STATE LEGISLATURES: Election day is now less than four months away. Many pundits are writing about significant GOP gains which are expected in the U.S. House and Senate, but the battle over state legislatures has been ignored.
The outlook in this category is also very favorable for the GOP. The Republican Party is now expected to win control of the state House of Representatives in Indiana, Iowa, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The GOP should also win the New York State Senate, and both chambers in Alabama, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.
The Alaska Senate is currently controlled by a coalition, but this should also tip to the GOP.
NEW YORK: Huma Abedin, 34, and Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY), 45, will be married tomorrow in a ceremony performed by former President Bill Clinton. Abedin was the traveling chief of staff for Hillary Clinton during the 2008 presidential campaign and rarely left the candidate’s side. She previously dated actor George Clooney, and is currently a special advisor to the Secretary of State. Weiner is expected to be a future candidate for Mayor of New York City.
Weiner is Jewish and Abedin grew up in Saudi Arabia and is Muslim. He lost the 2005 Mayoral nomination and pulled out of the 2009 contest. In 1998, Weiner replaced Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in the House. He has a liberal voting record but did support the use of force to remove Saddam Hussein in 2002. He later said the vote was a mistake and sponsored a resolution to remove all U.S. troops from Iraq.
NEBRASKA: It’s a nice house, but no Democrat is interested. The Nebraska Democratic state convention is on July 23rd, and there is still no candidate for Governor. The party has approached 12 people who have all declined the opportunity to take up residence in the Nebraska Governor’s mansion. Mark Lakers dropped out of the race after winning the May primary. Sen. Ben Nelson (D) has said he will seek re-election in 2012, but is currently trailing GOP Gov. Dave Heineman by 30%.

The Nebraska Governor’s Mansion in Lincoln. So far no Democrat has applied to live here.

FLORIDA: Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) has been rapidly sinking in the gubernatorial primary. Rick Scott has been attacking him for supporting the “pro-abortion, pro-homosexual” presidential campaign of Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Scott, a former hospital executive, has spent over $20 million of his own fortune on the campaign, and has a lead in the polls over McCollum.
Alan West, one of the few black GOP candidates, leads the nation in the amount of money raised by a congressional challenger last quarter, $1.4 million. West, a retired army colonel, is challenging liberal Rep. Ron Klein (D). West’s total fundraising this cycle is $3.5 million. Klein defeated West by 10% in 2008 and this is a tough district for the GOP.
WEST VIRGINIA: The state will apparently hold a Senate election this November to replace the late Robert Byrd (D), but GOP prospects are dim now that Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will enter the race. He is pro-life while the most prominent Republican is pro-choice. The state legislature will convene on Thursday to change the law and allow a special election this November.
Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) was defeated in the primary by Mike Oliverio, who said he would not support Nancy Pelosi’s election as Speaker of the House. He has since changed his mind.
TENNESSEE: Democrats have little hope of holding on to the Tennessee’s Governor’s office, but the GOP candidate is going to be an upset. Rep. Zach Wamp and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey are both trailing Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam by a significant margin in the primary. In the 6th District, Rep. Bart Gordon (R) is retiring and GOP State Sen. Diane Black has a huge lead in both the primary and general election. This Democratic district is now rated “Safe Republican.”
OHIO: The U.S. Senate race will be one of the closest in the nation, but the GOP won the fundraising battle last quarter by a 2 to 1 margin. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) now has $9 million in cash on hand. The Democratic candidate is Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and his defeated primary opponent, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, is refusing to endorse him.
Former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine (R) is doing well in his comeback attempt and currently has the lead in the contest for state Attorney General.
ALASKA: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) is staying neutral in the primary but former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and the Tea Party Express have both endorsed challenger Joe Miler over Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R). Palin was elected Governor by defeating the incumbent Republican, who was Murkowski’s father.
Palin says Murkowski, the ranking Republican on the Energy Committee, is “part of the big-government problem in Washington.” Murkowski criticized Palin for abandoning the state when she resigned as Governor. Palin has a 46% approval rating while Murkowski’s is 64%. Miller is a West Point and Yale law school graduate. He is a former Judge who was defeated in his 2004 campaign for State Representative.
ARIZONA: Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth’s primary challenge to Sen. John McCain (R) has been collapsing for the past month. Hayworth’s most recent TV ad buy was a meager $2,100. McCain is calling Hayworth a “huckster” because of his 2007 TV infomercial on “free government grant money.” Hayworth says the grants really do exist, but grants.gov says the former Congressman’s claim is a scam.
ARKANSAS: Liberal Rep. Vic Snyder (D) is retiring after five terms, and conservative former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin (R) has a commanding 50% to 34% lead. A boost to Griffin was the upset in the Democratic primary. House Speaker Robbie Wills, a moderate, was defeated by liberal Senate Majority Leader Joyce Elliott. Wills attacked her for being pro-choice and anti-gun, but that did not help him win the Democratic nomination. Elliott is best known for sponsoring legislation which gave college scholarships to illegal immigrants. She is also one of the few candidates to endorse earmarks which are associated with pork barrel spending.
IOWA: Democrats had a 100,000 voter registration advantage six months ago, but that lead has now been cut in half. Former four term Gov. Terry Branstad (R) is trying to reclaim his old office. A Branstad TV ad out today says:
“Chet Culver likes to say unemployment was highest in state history when Terry Branstad took office. He’s exactly right. And by the time Terry Branstad left, unemployment was the lowest in state history and Terry helped create nearly 300,000 new jobs. Chet Culver? Under him unemployment has nearly doubled, the highest in 24 years.”
KANSAS: Sen. Sam Brownback (R) will be the state’s next Governor, and Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are contending for the nomination to succeed him. Moran has been endorsed by Sen. Jim DeMint (SC) while Sarah Palin is backing Tiahrt. The race is seen as a battle between fiscal conservatives (Moran) and social conservatives (Tiahrt).
NEVADA: Karl Rove’s 527 group, American Crossroads, has now spent over $500,000 on independent TV ads attacking Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). First Lady Dawn Gibbons (R) and Sparks Mayor Geno Martini (R) are both refusing to support GOP Senate candidate Sharron Angle. Angle wanted the United States to leave the United Nations, but has since withdrawn the statement from her website. Former Rep. Barbara Vucanovich (R) had also threatened to not support the GOP nominee but has changed her mind.
Vucanovich met with Angle and told the news media she said “Sharron, you’re scaring the bejesus out of everybody. I told her you better make damn sure people really understand what you’re trying to do.”
MISSISSIPPI: Rep. Travis Childers (D) has been endorsed by the NRA, National Right to Life and the Chamber of Commerce, but is still performing poorly against State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R). The Republican candidate has a 50% to 42% lead. Obama won just 38% of the vote in this district in 2008, and currently has an approval rating of just 36%.
COLORADO: Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) visited the state yesterday to endorse the Senate candidacy of former Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck. Buck is challenging former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton for the nomination to oppose appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Buck was introduced by former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) who called President Obama “the greatest threat to the United States today.” Buck called the statement a “Tancredoism.” “I am concerned about the direction of the country. I love Tom, but I don’t always agree with him,” Buck said. Tancredo has said if there is another terrorist attack on the United States, the Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina should be bombed.