What to Expect With Obama’s 2012 Democratic Convention Bounce



The Democratic convention in Charlotte will be held during the week of September 3, and the President is expected to receive the traditional bounce in the polls. Conservatives should not panic.
On July 26, 1988, the Gallup Poll for Newsweek was published. It was Gov. Michael Dukakis (D-MA) 55% vs. Vice President George H.W. Bush 38%. This was the first survey after the Democratic convention. Before the convention Dukakis was leading 47% to 41%, and this would be his peak.
Bush would carry 40 states, and was the last Republican to win many “blue states” that favor the Democratic Party. These states were Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois and California.
His victory percentage, 53.4%, has not yet been surpassed in any subsequent presidential election, and he was the last candidate to get a majority of the popular vote until his son’s 2004 election. This was also the last election in which a Republican nominee won a majority of Northern electoral votes.
In 1984, Walter Mondale’s (D-MN) standing rose 12 points after the Democratic convention that year, but the improved performance dissipated within ten days.